Probability Indicators · Model Pending · Mazowsze
Temperature Anomaly
vs. 1991–2020 norm
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
Precipitation Deficit
Below seasonal norm
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
Late Frost Risk
After 15 May
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
Drought Risk
Soil moisture deficit
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
Heat Wave Window
≥ 5 days above 30°C
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
River Flood Risk
Level anomaly > +30%
— Pending
Requires 30-year IMGW-PIB climatological baseline — no estimate yet for this indicator in this region.
Will activate once this indicator has a computed estimate.
Confidence: N/A
Teleconnection IndicesLarge-scale atmospheric/ocean patterns (NAO, AO, ENSO, AMO) that influence weather thousands of km away with a lag of weeks to months. They carry strong predictive weight for the seasonal model — a shifting NAO is often the earliest signal of a changing precipitation pattern over Poland.
NAO
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— Pending
North Atlantic Oscillation
AO
—
— Pending
Arctic Oscillation
ENSO
—
— Pending
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
AMO
—
— Pending
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscil.
Run /api/sync-teleconnections to fetch NOAA CPC indices.
Historical Analogs
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Historical analog matching requires climatological baseline.
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—
Will activate once 30-year IMGW archive is ingested.
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Bayesian model maps current conditions to past seasons.
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Analog years will appear here once the model has run for this region.
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Run /api/compute-model to activate analog matching.
IMGW-PIB Station Readings
Loading live readings…
Mazowsze · Station Map · Live
Loading station positions…
Dynamic Prediction
Run /api/compute-model to activate seasonal predictions.
Climate Scenarios · Probability Distribution
Hot & Dry
—%
Mixed
—%
Near Normal
—%
Flagged Event Windows
Sustained Heat Wave
Pending
—%
Drought Persistence
Pending
—%
Atlantic Pattern Return
Pending
—%
Precipitation Recovery
Pending
—%
Model Change Log
Changes ≥5% will appear here after the first model run.
Station data: IMGW-PIB open data (danepubliczne.imgw.pl) · Teleconnections (NOAA CPC) and Bayesian probability model: live